Niche tracking and rapid establishment of distributional equilibrium in the house sparrow show potential responsiveness of species to climate change.

The ability of species to respond to novel future climates is determined in part by their physiological capacity to tolerate climate change and the degree to which they have reached and continue to maintain distributional equilibrium with the environment. While broad-scale correlative climatic measurements of a species' niche are often described as estimating the fundamental niche, it is unclear how well these occupied portions actually approximate the fundamental niche per se, versus the fundamental niche that exists in environmental space, and what fitness values bounding the niche are necessary to maintain distributional equilibrium. Here, we investigate these questions by comparing physiological and correlative estimates of the thermal niche in the introduced North American house sparrow (Passer domesticus). Our results indicate that occupied portions of the fundamental niche derived from temperature correlations closely approximate the centroid of the existing fundamental niche calculated on a fitness threshold of 50% population mortality. Using these niche measures, a 75-year time series analysis (1930-2004) further shows that: (i) existing fundamental and occupied niche centroids did not undergo directional change, (ii) interannual changes in the two niche centroids were correlated, (iii) temperatures in North America moved through niche space in a net centripetal fashion, and consequently, (iv) most areas throughout the range of the house sparrow tracked the existing fundamental niche centroid with respect to at least one temperature gradient. Following introduction to a new continent, the house sparrow rapidly tracked its thermal niche and established continent-wide distributional equilibrium with respect to major temperature gradients. These dynamics were mediated in large part by the species' broad thermal physiological tolerances, high dispersal potential, competitive advantage in human-dominated landscapes, and climatically induced changes to the realized environmental space. Such insights may be used to conceptualize mechanistic climatic niche models in birds and other taxa

Pay or Play Laws, ERISA Preemption, and Potential Lessons from Massachusetts

This is the published version

Employers as Risks

In evaluating health and retirement security in the United States, much recent work has focused on shortcomings in individual decision making. For example, in explaining why 401(k) plans are suboptimal for achieving retirement security, a significant volume of literature has catalogued the mistakes individuals make when attempting to save for retirement through such plans. This article seeks to move the discussion of suboptimal decision making in a new direction, by focusing on the impact that employer decision making has on the ability of employees to achieve health and retirement security. The article argues that employer decision making regarding whether to offer health and retirement plans and, if offered, what form such benefits will take, has a significant impact on the ability of employees to achieve health and retirement security. The article concludes by offering initial thoughts on methods to control this employer-level risk

A Mechanistic Niche Model for Measuring Species' Distributional Responses to Seasonal Temperature Gradients

Niche theory is central to understanding how species respond geographically to climate change. It defines a species' realized niche in a biological community, its fundamental niche as determined by physiology, and its potential niche—the fundamental niche in a given environment or geographic space. However, most predictions of the effects of climate change on species' distributions are limited to correlative models of the realized niche, which assume that species are in distributional equilibrium with respect to the variables or gradients included in the model. Here, I present a mechanistic niche model that measures species' responses to major seasonal temperature gradients that interact with the physiology of the organism. I then use lethal physiological temperatures to parameterize the model for bird species in North and South America and show that most focal bird species are not in direct physiological equilibrium with the gradients. Results also show that most focal bird species possess broad thermal tolerances encompassing novel climates that could become available with climate change. I conclude with discussion of how mechanistic niche models may be used to (i) gain insights into the processes that cause species to respond to climate change and (ii) build more accurate correlative distribution models in birds and other species

Value-Based Mandated Health Benefits

Mandated health benefit laws figure prominently in health reform debates. These laws, which are primarily enacted by the states, require health insurers to cover specific medical treatment, services, or supplies such as mental health treatment, mammograms, or diabetes testing supplies. Critics argue that mandated health benefit laws increase health insurance costs, decrease consumer choice, and often are the product of rent-seeking, rather than sound public policy. This Article seeks to further the discussion of mandated health benefit laws by systemically identifying permissible rationales for such laws. The justifications identified include addressing (1) market failure that leads to nonavailability of coverage, (2) suboptimal utilization of a medical treatment or service, (3) undesired insurance company coverage determinations, (4) cognitive shortcuts and biases, and (5) failures in the group market. For any of these justifications to be used, however, there must also be a viable justice claim for such coverage or the coverage must have a positive cost-benefit or cost-efficiency analysis compared to noncoverage. This Article argues that being precise about the justification for a mandated health benefit law allows such a law to be precisely tailored to solving the problem which justifies its existence. These tailored mandates, referred to as value-based mandates, continue to advance the important policy goals of mandates, while being significantly more efficient than non-value-based mandates. The Article concludes with three case studies of existing mandated benefit laws, analyzing each under the value-based framework set forth in the first part of the Article.

A Partial Defense of the IRS as Health Care Agency

Despite the fact that the Internal Revenue Service (“IRS”) is overburdened and struggling to meet the needs of taxpayers, Congress continues to add to IRS responsibilities in areas that appear far removed from the agency’s core revenue raising function. The Affordable Care Act (“ACA”) is a commonly cited example of the non-revenue raising regulatory roles the IRS is increasingly asked to play, to the criticism of many. After providing an historical overview of the IRS’s involvement in health care regulation, the article provides a partial defense of the expanded role that the IRS has been given as a result of the ACA. The article concludes that much of the IRS’s involvement in health care regulation appears not only defensible, but efficient. For better or for worse, there is no better system for processing payments to or from a large number of taxpayers than the federal income tax system. Additionally, the use of excise taxes to shape taxpayer behavior appears to offer the best of both worlds: a powerful incentive that requires very few enforcement resources. The article concludes, however, that significant burden could be removed from the IRS by modifying or removing the IRS’s substantive rulemaking authority with respect to health care matters, deferring instead to other federal agencies, such as the Department of Health and Human Services, that have particular health policy expertise

An Affordable Care Act for Retirement Plans?

In the United States, the availability of tax subsidies for retirement savings is largely based on an individual’s employment status and whether such individual’s employer has voluntarily chosen to offer a tax-favored savings vehicle. Even where an individual has access to an employer-sponsored retirement plan, such plans are too often suboptimally designed. This article proposes an incremental reform that ensures universal access to tax-favored retirement savings irrespective of employment status or employer decisions. Borrowing from the model of the Affordable Care Act, the article calls for the creation of an optional, universally available retirement plan, which would be designed according to both retirement savings and behavioral best practices. Such a plan would be designed to increase the number of Americans saving for retirement, as well as the likelihood that individuals will accumulate sufficient savings to maintain their standard of living throughout retirement. After discussing the design details for such a plan, the article concludes by examining the legal and practical challenges of implementing a universal retirement plan at either the federal or state level

Final report to the Anchorage Police Department

This brief report updates the previous report Descriptive Analysis of Sexual Assaults in Anchorage to document some of the changes in the nature of sexual assault in Anchorage, Alaska from 2000 to 2003. From 2000 to 2003, the rates of reported sexual assaults in Anchorage continue to be significantly higher than national rates; most victims continued to be female, and almost all suspects male; over half of sexual assaults continued to occur in private residences; and the Spenard and Fairview community council areas continued to experience the highest numbers of sexual assaults in the municipality. However, from 2000 to 2003, some key changes in the nature of sexual assaults were observed. The number of forcible rapes and sexual assaults reported showed a steady increase; sexual assault victimizations increased particularly among Natives and Blacks, among persons younger than 15 years old and those aged 45 to 54 years of age; stranger assaults declined while non-stranger assaults increased; and sexual assaults occurring in the Downtown community council area increased by 144 percent. While this update provides a brief overview of some key changes in the nature of sexual assaults in Anchorage, it does provide enough information to assist in changing policy, and the information presented is now two years old. Ideally, a monitoring program would be developed in Anchorage to provide real-time empirical information about sexual assault and forcible rape to assist in efforts to fight these crimes.Acknowledgments / Executive Summary / I. Gravity Of The Problem: How Does Anchorage Compare Now? / II. The Current Study / III. Victim Information / IV. Suspect Information / V. Assault Information / Conclusion / Appendix A: Data Collection Instrument for 2002/2003 Updat